Hello,
Here we are again to have a talk about some common anime topic while waiting for the winter season 2011 to properly start in a few days time next week. (at the moment only a pre-air version of Rinne no Lagrange's first episode got aired).
In this week, I had quite a "heated" discussion around the web with some friends on the meaning of "popularity and success of an anime series" after the sales quantity information of the first volume of the fall season anime got released to the public. (thanks to alex for the heads up)
The concepts of "popularity" and "success" of an anime series are two very different concepts based on different premises. Analyzing these two concepts I tried to understand a bit more the invisible wall dividing Japan from the rest of the world.

When an anime is successful? After a bit of talk we convened that raw success for an anime series is obtained by watching to the sales number of the anime DVD/BD in Japan that are the main source of sustainance for the anime production industry that allow us to get more and more anime series every season.
When an anime is popular? An anime is popular when it has a big quantity of followers and fans, when communities get created for the sole purpose of talking over it and is measured mainly by the raw quantity of people who watched (through different means) and liked a particular anime series.
As we know, Anime DVD/BD is treated in Japan as a collector item, something extremely expensive (over 80-90€ per BD sometimes) that only a selected cadre of few people buy, but at the same time given a big enough number of people (by statistical means) in both categories the composition and percentages of the choice should be pretty much at the same level.

Just to take something as a reference, a typical (not talking about big hits like Madoka Magica or similar) successful anime series sell around 5000-6000 copies (BD/DVD combined) each volume and, depending on the quantity of work that was needed to create it, an anime studio need from 2750 to 4000 copies to recover the costs of production.
Unfortunately, by looking at the sales numbers through the history I immediately noticed that there is some kind of deep rift between the popularity of an anime series in the whole world and its success in sales in Japan.
In order to understand better about this rift let's give a look at the sales result of some anime series first volume of the fall season 2011. A season that had plenty of big names and interesting series to watch and blog about and should be a good example to notice this effect.

Let's pick up Mirai Nikki, one of the series who pretty much everyone around the blogosphere liked and that is quite popular in various anime community around the world. The first BD volume of Mirai Nikki got 2,336 item sold, well under the safe zone for recovering the production costs.
At the same time Kyoukai Senjou no Horizon, an anime series not really popular in the blogosphere with no enormous fandom around the world got a wobbling 16,349 BDs sold in its first volume. A number that greatly overcome even series like Shakugan no Shana (the first season) who got in the 2005 "only" 12.198 copies for its first volume.
Even Tamayura, considered by many bloggers around here an "extremely unpopular choice" got more than Mirai Nikki with a great 4.077 BDs sold in its first volume, something definitely massive for such a low-production values (animation quality and audio quality) anime series.

These are only few examples extracted from the recent series data, but going through the whole list of BD/DVD sales in the history this trend is repeated from time to time regularly showing that it isn't just a coincidence.
The only conclusion I can take after watching this data is that there is some big invisible wall separating the tastes of japanese anime watchers from the ones of the rest of the world.
The question I have at this point is, why there is this big difference in terms of "tastes" between the average world anime watcher and the japanese ones? What is the reason influencing them to choose something very different from what we would normally do?

And you? What do you think about the link between success and popularity of an anime series? Do you think that we have a wall separating Japan's tastes from the rest of the world one?
See you soon,
feal87
P.S. Happy new year! Hope you'll continue to follow this little blog! :)